1. LAS VEGAS
Average home price (2011): $130,100
Projected home price (2014): $120,000
Gross rent (2011): $922
Projected gross rent (2014): $966
Las Vegas has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation -- and many of those former homeowners now rent. Much of the large workforce in the casino industry consists of renters; the home ownership rate is a low 55%. While the rental market in Sin City remains robust, rents have been squeezed, falling about 10% since 2007. Part of the problem is unemployment, which reached 12.4% in May, one of the highest rates of any U.S. metro area. Experts expect the rate to fall gradually and that should mean rents will start climbing again. The forecasts for Las Vegas residential investment properties will yield returns that are 4.7% above the national average.
2. DETROIT
Average home price (2011): $97,800
Projected home price (2014): $94,600
Gross rent (2011): $681
Projected gross rent (2014): $764
The auto industry's troubles, which began in the mid-2000's, helped send unemployment soaring and Detroit area home prices plunging some 37% from their peak. Unfortunately, the industry's modest recovery has done little to drive home prices in the area higher forecasting a falloff of another 3% over the next three years. Rents, though, are expected to rise about 12% over that time. The average return on rentals will be about 4.4% higher than the national average. One risk for real estate investors looking to cash in: The area's unemployment rate is still high -- 11.6% in May -- and the metro area's population has also shrunk, by about 4% since the recession started, as residents fled the bad economy, poor schools and high crime rate, reducing demand for both rentals and sales.
3. WARREN, MICH.
Average home price (2011): $106,400
Projected home price (2014): $105,200
Gross rent (2011): $648
Projected gross rent (2014): $736
Home prices in Warren, Mich. have dropped at a rate that is almost as severe as nearby Detroit. Prices have declined by about 35% from the peak as a result of its reliance on the auto industry. Warren is home to a major automotive research facility, which used to employ a large percentage of the population. Many of the homes for rent here are well-kept and located in tidy neighborhoods, making them attractive for renters. For real estate investors, there are fewer risks involved in buying rental properties in suburban Warren. The area experiences less crime and has better schools. The population is also more stable. The average investor can expect a return of about 3.3% above the national market.
4. ORLANDO, FLA.
Average home price (2011): $165,200
Projected home price (2014): $166,200
Gross rent (2011): $980
Projected gross rent (2014): $1,148
The real estate market in Orlando, home to Disney and a slew of other theme parks has been anything but magical lately. Prices have plummeted 43% since 2006. Experts project little in the way home price gains Orlando over the next three years. Rents, on the other hand, are expected to climb by a healthy 17% clip. The area's ties to tourism should help as the economic recovery gains traction, he said. Visitors keep coming to the theme parks here, despite the lukewarm national job picture. If employment ever heats up, the area will attract even more visitors and that means more jobs for local residents. Real estate investors will net about 3% above the national average.
5. BARKERSFIELD, CALIF.
Average home price (2011): $131,000
Projected home price (2014): $128,500
Gross rent (2011): $736
Projected gross rent (2014): $829
After the housing market bubble burst, Bakersfield, Calif. became one of the nation's sickest housing markets, with plunging prices, high delinquency rates and many foreclosures. Unemployment here soared to more than 15%. The local economy, which had previously relied on the rich farmlands nearby, became dependent on real estate development during the boom. When that industry vanished, it took a lot of jobs with it. Home prices have been cut in half since 2006. With employment improving slowly rents are estimated to climb higher. Real estate investors could expect to see average returns that are 2.5% higher than the national average.
6. TAMPA, FLA.
Average home price (2011): $152,700
Projected home price (2014): $147,200
Gross rent (2011): $832
Projected gross rent (2014): $933
As home to many of Florida's retirees, rents in Tampa have bounced up and down a little, but have remained basically flat the past three years. But with the local labor market on the mend rents are expected to take off, increasing about 12% over the next three years. Right now, the biggest housing problem in the area is that there is too much of it. Last year, home prices dropped about 10% due to an oversupply of investment properties built during the boom. Investors should still exceed the national average by about 2.4% a year.
7. PHOENIX
Average home price (2011): $155,600
Projected home price (2014): $148,200
Gross rent (2011): $834
Projected gross rent (2014): $936
Phoenix was the poster child for the housing bubble: Speculation sent home prices soaring by annual double-digit increases for three years until the bubble popped in 2007 and they have fallen more than 47% since. Foreclosures have been a big problem here and many people who lost their homes are now renting. As a result, rents are on the rise. Estimated rents will increase by more than $100 a month over the next three years. The two biggest positives for those looking to invest in rental properties in Phoenix are that the job market is growing again and people are still moving to town. In fact, the population has grown by 8% since 2006. Rental investments are expected to pay 2.3% bigger return in the Phoenix metro area than the national average.
8. FORT LAUDERDALE, FLA.
Average home price (2011): $200,500
Projected home price (2014): $189,200
Gross rent (2011): $1,090
Projected gross rent (2014): $1,195
Even though home prices in this pricey part of Florida are expected to fall further, rental rates are going strong. Rents in Fort Lauderdale average nearly $1,100 a month and are projected to increase by nearly 10% over the next three years. Like much of the state, Fort Lauderdale was severely overbuilt during the housing boom and the inventory overhang has depressed markets for years. That inventory will have to be worked through before the market will turn positive again. Until then, real estate investors may want to rely on the expected 2.3% premium over the national average return for rental properties.
9. ROCHESTER, N.Y.
Average home price (2011): $150,500
Projected home price (2014): $155,500
Gross rent (2011): $825
Projected gross rent (2014): $947
Rochester's housing market never sputtered as badly as some of the other cities on this list. Home prices are slightly higher than they were during the market boom and unemployment, at 7.1% in May, is well below the national level. The Rochester area, however, is a slow-growth place with many of its old industrial powerhouses, like Eastman Kodak, employing far fewer workers than in the glory days. Like a lot of cities in the Northeast, its industrial infrastructure is being re-purposed. Small businesses are moving in to old sites. The economy is improving a little.
Even during the down years, rents have held up fairly well and are projected to get stronger rising about 15% by 2014 as unemployment eases over the next few years.
10. STOCKTON, CALIF.
Average home price (2011): $157,100
Projected home price (2014): $150,000
Gross rent (2011): $821
Projected gross rent (2014): $915
Like Bakersfield, Calif., Stockton is a Central Valley city where speculation pressure spilled over from more expensive coastal markets and drove local prices into a frenzy during the bubble. That's long over and Stockton prices have declined a whopping 57% from peak. That has made single-family homes affordable again for local residents but also attractive for investors. Patience should pay off. The economy in California is improving faster than in some bubble areas, such as Florida. Rising rents, forecast to go up 11% over the next three years, should add to investor gains but buyers won't turn a profit on sales for many years. Home prices are expected to fall another 4% or so by 2014.
source: money magazine